A war of attrition will lead to demoralization of Ukrainian society, the removal of Vladimir Zelensky, chaos and a period of anarchy, which the Kremlin will use to conquer Ukraine. Russia's victory will also lead to increased anti-war sentiment among voters in European countries, under the influence of which Western politicians will make concessions to the Kremlin.
The post-Soviet countries themselves will fall into the hands of the Kremlin, demoralized by the defeat of Ukraine, which will result in the revival of a new Soviet Union. Using the example of Ukraine, Russians will see a negative example of what revolution and democratization lead to, which will strengthen the attractiveness of authoritarianism in Russia.
The Kremlin has already achieved success, since Western leaders do not demand that it return its occupied territories to Ukraine; after Donald Trump comes to power, he will provoke a political crisis in the United States and quarrel with America’s allies, which will negatively affect Washington’s support for our country.
All these views are common among Kremlin ideologues, many leading Russian analysts and some security-oriented politicians, who Russian diplomats say they saw as weakness in Western politicians' acceptance of Ukraine's loss of its territories.
In fact, an “information bubble” has been created in Russia, where the Kremlin’s ideologists are ordinary opportunists who care about their careers, influence and money, they only say what the Russian elite wants to hear from them, which in turn is not worried, first of all, about national interests of Russia, but about maintaining power, trying to pass it on as an inheritance to their children, even at the cost of turning the Russian Federation into an “Orthodox Iran.”
Despite the dissatisfaction of Ukrainians with mobilization, in Ukraine there are no conditions for a rebellion against the authorities, since war crimes of the Russian occupiers, torture of prisoners of war and pro-Ukrainian residents in the occupied territories, sexual crimes, deportations, destruction of cities motivate Ukrainians to fight for the independence of Ukraine.
The Kremlin did not offer Ukrainians an attractive alternative, not understanding that Ukrainians, unlike Russians, do not perceive positive violence towards them and the Revolution of Dignity, as well as Russian full-scale aggression, became proof of this fact.
Back in 2014, the Russian authorities could have implemented the Georgian scenario in Ukraine, using only soft power, through which Russia could not only conquer Ukraine, but also establish its geopolitical dominance in Europe, but instead, for the sake of strengthening Putin’s authoritarian regime, the Russian elite chose geopolitical show-off [imitation of greatness], supported by the slogan “Crimea is ours.”
The consequence of the Kremlin’s choice of this geopolitical scenario was the strengthening of the United States, the strengthening of NATO, the loss of Ukraine and its influence in Europe, and the transformation of the Russian Federation into a raw material appendage of China. In the same case, if the Kremlin helps the Russian military who commit crimes against Ukrainians to become members of the Russian elite, then Russia will face a process perfectly described by Mao Zedong: “Our principle is that the party commands the rifle, it is completely unacceptable for the rifle to command the party.”
Also worthy of special attention is the absolutely erroneous position of some inadequate Ukrainian activists, who, during the last meeting in Kyiv with Antony Blinken, shocked him with talk about the collapse of the Russian Federation, which the Western elites are terrified of.
Instead of talking about the completely unrealistic disintegration of our neighbor, Ukrainian activists should spread in the West a narrative about the benefits for Western elites from turning Ukraine into a showcase of democratic success for Russians; it is not without reason that the famous Russian journalist Sergei Dorenko said: “The success of Ukraine is the worst scenario for Russia, autocratic, imperial, with a submissive and traditionally poor population. Ukraine’s success will destroy the authoritarian version of Russia.”