Prigozhin crossed another red line. This time, he simply warned: if Shoigu decides to raid Wagner, then Shoigu will die. The statement was made in response to the fact that the Ministry of Defense decided to force all volunteers to enlist in the ranks of the armed forces of the Russian Federation.
War for two
Let's start with the fact that Prigozhin very bluntly alludes to the fact that Shoigu cannot raid something on his own (he directly calls him a "Tuvan degenerate". Who then is behind Shoigu? No matter how strange it may sound, no one yet. So far - this is a war for two, but there are a lot of jackals walking around who would like to raid Wagner and get Shoigu's chair.
Why is Prigogine "burning" Surovikin?
In his speech, Prigozhin states that he only followed Surovikin's orders and that the latter is the only smart general. There can be three reasons for such an accentuated mention: firstly, Surovikin already has a strained relationship with Gerasimov and it is possible that he can be “left” along with Wagner and this is a game ahead of the curve. Secondly, it can be a field for maneuver when the time comes "H".
If absolutely necessary, you can "negotiate" Surovikin - Prigogine and the first will promise to fulfill some requirements, and the last will be able to get out of the situation without losing face. And the third option: Prigozhin is simply using Surovikin cynically.
Prigozhin in governorship
Yesterday there was a version that Prigozhin would be offered the post of governor in order to drive him into a stall.
Regarding the stall, we saw the example of Saakashvili, when the governorship did not prevent him from saying whatever he wanted. One can only imagine what kind of corruption schemes Governor Prigozhin will talk about if there is even a little truth in the rumors about his governorship.
Why is Putin so far silent?
Silence and waiting in the corner, this is Putin's hallmark. Being a coward by nature, he is, among other things, afraid to make decisions.
And he is afraid to part with people. But there is one more thing here: the Prigozhin-Shoigu conflict was conceived, like a lot of similar conflicts, like a story, when people who gnaw at each other and wait for Putin to resolve the situation are pitted against each other. This time, Putin would need someone to easily troll the generals so that their energy goes not to palace games, but to war with each other. And here the situation ceased to be regular.
It is necessary to take a sharp decision, which is very unpleasant for Putin, when he is given an ultimatum: either one or the other. He, by virtue of his psychotype, cannot stand such ultimatums. And that's why he pauses.
Prigozhin vs Kadyrov
A few months ago, Kadyrov, who began to play his political games, and even began to try on the uniform of the head of the National Guard, was thrown back to Chechnya.
In a fairly tough form, he was pointed to his place, and he accepted these rules of the game. The current situation with Prigozhin is a chance for Kadyrov to get back on the Russian agenda.
Moreover, he himself took on the role of the king's dog, who yelps at those who interfere with the king. But Kadyrov made his first “woof” too primitively and received an answer that Prigogine residents remember the first and second Chechen wars and on whose side the Kadyrov clan fought.
Prigozhin openly began to talk about the opposition of Russians and Chechens in the current realities. If we discard the near-political chatter, there is a high probability that the Chechens and Wagnerists in the near future may become competitors in the criminal world of Russia. This should be followed, of course, but no one has canceled the inter-ethnic criminal redistribution of Russia. Prigozhin was the first to speak loudly about dissatisfaction with the dominant role of the Chechens in this world.
What will happen next?
The system is built in such a way that no one understands what to do without the instructions of Putin, who is not yet willing to make any decisions. The ideal solution is to kill Prigogine. But there is no command from Putin. However, Shoigu himself, so to speak, delivered an ultimatum to Putin: by July 1, this issue should be finally resolved.
More precisely, it was Putin himself, through the mouth of Shoigu, who conveyed his regards to Prigozhin and said that by 1.08 you should complete this circus. Therefore, with a high degree of probability we can say that Putin will remain silent until 1.08.
What will Prigogine do?
I already wrote above that he has a fallback option to transfer part of the Wagnerites to the Ministry of Defense under Surovikin’s personal guarantees that all conditions will be met before them. But at the same time, one should not forget that the military capabilities of the Wagnerites are now relatively small.
And even by transferring his prisoners to the Ministry of Defense, he does not lose political opportunities in the criticism of the Ministry of Defense (he will tell daily how someone was sent to certain death, for example). After 1:08 he will still remain in politics.
And here we return to the main thing: will Putin give an order to liquidate (arrest, for which I wrote a few days ago) Prigozhin? And the answer here is simple: as long as Putin does not experience a personal threat, he will not. For Prigogine for him is still part of the system of balances (in relation to the Ministry of Defense and Kadyrov, first of all). So the show must go on. Although no one, of course, canceled the black swans.