Vladimir Putin and the KGB caste faced the threat of losing power. When Putin started the war on February 24, he proceeded from the premise that China, old Europe and even the United States would not oppose the absorption of Ukraine. Agreements with Xi Jinping allowed him to transfer most of the combat-ready units of the army from the Far East. This exposed Russia's flanks, which was uncritical in Putin's understanding if successful in Ukraine. However, the destruction of the Russian regular army in Ukraine presented Putin with existential challenges.
First, many inside the Russian Federation began to realize that Russia was losing the war with Ukraine, and this raised the question of the legitimacy of the Putin regime in the near future. The Chekists realized that they could really lose power.
Secondly, Putin's key foreign policy partners - China, Germany and others, who accepted the destruction of Ukraine as a necessary evil for the formation of a new world order, suddenly faced the fact of too high a price that they were not ready to pay. Putin has become too toxic to strategic partners to continue in the wake of his bloody experiments. The SCO summit recorded the geopolitical loneliness of Russia. China and India openly said that the war must be ended. And Moscow realized that exposed flanks were a problem. Putin understands that if the West decides to dispose of Russia, if China becomes part of a deal with the West, then the defeat will be quick and total.
Therefore, hasty mobilization became the only possible response for Putin. Since he does not want to stop the war on the terms of the West, a large mass of cannon fodder is needed to close the entire huge perimeter of Russia. Putin agreed with Xi Jinping like Stalin did with Hitler, but this does not guarantee that there will be no stab in the back. That is why Putin launched a poorly organized mobilization.
Putin's mobilization is a tool for the Chekists to maintain power. The transformation of Russia into a new North Korea is a model for maintaining power.
The Chekists understand that they have lost strategically, because they want guarantees - the preservation of power. There is only one such guarantee - autarchy. Only autarchy in the spirit of North Korea allows them to maintain power in their understanding.
In this regard, the mobilization launches a recycling machine for dissenters. Mobilization is 1937 in Putin's style. And it will be used in this way. Chekists grab the protesters and immediately send them to the front. The narrative that Russia is at war with the West means that mobilization will continue indefinitely until such a conflict ends. That is, the end of the war with Ukraine will not end the mobilization in Russia. It will last until the Chekists feel that the threat of losing power has disappeared.
In this regard, tactical nuclear strikes against Ukraine solve the problem of Russia's promotion to the status of North Korea. Because for the internal user, they will close all possible alternatives. Russia will be closed to the world behind an iron curtain.
For the United States, this option is worse than a change in the regime of power in Russia, which will bring a conditional Navalny to the Kremlin, who will conclude an anti-Chinese pact with the West. But if the Chekists hold out, then the option of Russia - North Korea of Eurasia is also not bad for the United States, because it will cut off China from Russia's resources and alternative access to Europe by land. In this case, the US and China will have to negotiate. And it is possible that at the expense of Russia.
Summary:
- Putin has the opportunity to withdraw from the war on the terms of the West no later than the end of November.
Until then, Russia will deploy a new, ill-trained army to hold the occupied territories and bolster its bargaining power if Putin negotiates in November.
- The choking of a new wave will increase the motivation to use tactical nuclear strikes. Therefore, their threat must be treated realistically. The use of nuclear weapons will entail a deeper involvement of the United States and allies.
-Russia will be expelled from the UN Security Council and Russia's return to civilization will be tied to its denuclearization, denazification and demilitarization.
-Ukraine will receive the status of South Korea - a frontier state within NATO and the EU.