Late evening on January 27 the information about the telephone conversation between Zelensky and Biden leaked. It was spilled into the American media, which immediately led to a scandal. Although the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has already issued a refutation of this information, I can confirm from my sources in the OP and the government of Ukraine that over the past two months, conversations in a similar tone between Kyiv and Washington have been ongoing.
“Immediately after the conversation, CNN reporter Matthew Chance from Kyiv went on air with quotes from a “Ukrainian official” ( CNN did not disclose the name of the source) that the conversation “did not go well” and Biden clearly told Zelensky that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is almost certain, and he should be ready for a “sack” of Kyiv. Moreover, Zelensky, according to the reporter, did not agree with the assessments of the American counterpart about the inevitability of the Russian attack and the "level of risk", and even - this was already mentioned not on air, but in the text of the news - advised Biden to "calm down", because statements about the war are harming the Ukrainian economy," writes journalist Tatyana Vysotskaya.
After that, the White House denied.
“They say Biden repeated what he has constantly said publicly in recent months: that there is a danger of a Russian invasion in February. “Reports about anything else are false,” the White House press secretary clarified. CNN even deleted its initial tweet from the video - but then returned the video back with reservations, and the post of CNN correspondent from the White House Natasha Bertrand was also deleted with screenshots where Ze asked Biden to "calm down," the journalist continued.
Now the Republicans are demanding that the transcript of the conversation between Biden and Zelensky be made public.
So, I am sure that this is all pure truth, which confirms the logic of Biden's game around Ukraine, which I have already outlined in my material more than once.
What is Biden playing with Ukraine?
Biden is playing a new Cuban Missile Crisis from which he must emerge as a grand winner. After a monstrous failure in Afghanistan, Biden has weak cards in foreign policy. And the Republicans beat him with these cards. In the fall, the United States will have midterm elections to the Congress, which, according to all ratings, are won by the Republicans. Democrats are expected to lose control of both houses of Congress. Then Biden will have a very hard time. Therefore, the American president really needs convincing arguments in the form of success by the time of the midterm elections.
Therefore, in the spirit of the legendary movie "Wag the Dog," Biden began the information pumping of the "Russian invasion." The leaks of American intelligence agencies went one after another, but a problem arose - Ukraine stubbornly did not want to be scared.
I think that back in the summer in Geneva, Putin and Biden reached some kind of framework agreements that provided a script in which the United States and Russia would consistently move towards global agreements on a security architecture in the world.
But the key obstacle to the implementation of these agreements is Ukraine. In the spirit of Chamberlain and Daladier, who merged Czechoslovakia to Hitler in 1938 for the sake of “world peace,” Biden is willing to sacrifice Ukraine in order for Putin to take a neutral stance in the US-China conflict. Obviously, for the United States and Biden personally, the surrender of Ukraine will end in the same way that the surrender of Czechoslovakia ended in 1938 for Chamberlain and Great Britain. Putin, like Hitler, will play his game. Moreover, like Hitler, Putin's geopolitical game is connected with revenge - that is, a complete revision of the global security architecture after the collapse of the USSR.
Putin behaves as if the USSR has risen from the ashes, therefore he brazenly demands concessions from the United States in the spirit of the Brezhnev-Gromyko foreign policy. Putin understands that he has a unique chance today, when Biden is weak and in a year the situation may worsen significantly for Russia following the results of the midterm elections to Congress. Therefore, he is trying to realize his advantage at this particular moment.
Let's look at the situation purely analytically. Let's say that you are Biden and Putin and understand that your agreements directly depend on the position of Ukraine. For Biden, Ukraine is Russia's backyard, so concessions on it do not look critical. It seems that Biden assumes that even if Minsk-2 is implemented, the United States will have enough tools to influence Ukraine.
Somewhere in the same logic, Chamberlain acted when he thought that the cession of the Sudetenland to Hitler would help maintain peace in Europe. However, in fact, six months later, Hitler was already sharing with Hungary the remnants of Czechoslovakia, on the ruins of which a puppet Slovak state and the protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia arose. This slap in the face from Hitler finally convinced France and Great Britain that Germany would go further, because they confirmed Poland's allied obligations. Which a year after Munich 1938 refused to yield to Hitler. Thus began the Second World War.
So, today, Zelensky stubbornly refuses to lead Ukraine down the path of Czechoslovakia in 1938. The Ukrainian president is well aware that the implementation of Minsk-2 will end badly for him personally.
The Minsk agreements were spelled out by Poroshenko so mediocre from the point of view of Ukraine's interests that their implementation will lead to Russia getting a direct instrument of interference in Ukraine's affairs. Minsk-2 is a blocking package in Putin's hands that will allow restrictions to be placed on Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy using the changes to the Constitution that he seeks. Moreover, the 800,000 Russian passports that have been distributed in the LPR and DPR give Russia the opportunity to constantly interfere in the affairs of Ukraine under the pretext of “protecting the rights of compatriots.” That is, Poroshenko, having signed Minsk-2, put Ukraine on a silver platter, and the implementation of the agreements will start the process of deepening the crisis in Ukraine and turning it into a huge Bosnia and Herzegovina. Then the deepening of the internal crisis will follow, which will end with the collapse of statehood, civil war and the introduction of the Russian peacekeeping contingent under the pretext of "restoring order." This model was ready in 2014, but failed due to the cowardice of Yanukovych, who fled Ukraine and thwarted Putin's plan to restore order.
Now let's look at the situation of the Ukrainian crisis in the logic of facts.
In the fall of 2021, Russia begins to slowly deploy a grouping near the borders of Ukraine. In November, American intelligence agencies begin to spread rumors that Putin is about to attack. These stuffing goes through the American and German media. In parallel, an energy crisis is unfolding in Europe, which hits Ukraine very painfully. Russia limits the supply of thermal coal to Ukraine and prohibits its transit from Kazakhstan. At the same time, Russia is reducing gas transit through Ukraine's GTS. Forces Ukraine to spend more of its gas to maintain the necessary pressure in its GTS. In turn, this limits its ability to use the accumulated gas in storage for heating and electricity generation at thermal power plants, since there is not enough coal in the warehouses. In the European market, gas prices on the spot market reach $2,000. This deals a huge blow to the European economies, but Ukraine begins to simply suffocate, as its resource capabilities are more limited. However, American companies still carry liquefied gas to Asia, ignoring Europe. Only in the second half of December 2021, the Americans are transferring 30 gas carriers to Europe, which immediately knocks down prices on the European spot market. One gets the impression that the Americans deliberately waited for the situation to become too hot, and the demonstration of their efforts too spectacular.
In the second half of December, the intensity increases even more. Putin issues an ultimatum to the United States and demands a revision of the security architecture in Europe. Putin openly threatens the United States if they do not make concessions. Two weeks later, in Geneva, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov tells the US delegation that the situation needs to be rolled back to the 1997 level and heavy weapons removed from the Eastern European NATO countries. The buildup of Russian troops at the borders continues, and Biden makes a statement that NATO has no obligation to defend Ukraine. The United States, Great Britain, and the Baltic countries are beginning to transfer anti-tank missiles, Stingers, and other types of light weapons to Ukraine. By the way, with such a move, Biden knocked the ground out from under the feet of the Republicans, that the Democrats were afraid to transfer weapons to Ukraine, as was the case in 2014-2015 under Obama. Foreign capital begins to flee from Ukraine, and the dollar begins to rise. Back in December, the Ukrainian authorities behind the scenes asked the Americans to reduce the informational rampage about the Russian invasion, but the Biden administration continued to fire threatening statements about the Russian invasion. According to my information, Washington promises to reduce the intensity of the media campaign towards the end of February. By the way, I suppose that in this way the White House decided to slightly spoil the effect of the Olympics for the Chinese, which will begin very soon.
Therefore, the logic of the Biden administration's intimidation of Ukraine is strange, if you look at it from the point of view of Washington's further actions. Well, ok, you say that Putin will attack Ukraine, but at the same time you say that you will not defend Ukraine and will introduce some kind of sanctions that you yourself have not yet determined. So what is the threat to Putin? Will a vague non-public threat stop him? Or are these written threats that the Biden administration asked Russia not to make public?
You may agree, such actions by Biden definitely do not solve the problem of removing the threat of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
However, if you look at Biden's information campaign in a broader context, then everything will fall into place.
The threatening warnings of Biden and his administration about the Russian invasion of Ukraine are addressed not only to Zelensky about Minsk-2, who refused to be scared, but also to Europe, which, in fact, is scared in a moment.
Injection of horror around Ukraine solves several strategic tasks of the United States (we have already considered the tactical tasks of Biden himself and the Democrats).
First, the intimidation of Europe by Putin actualizes the need for the resurrection of NATO. When the USSR collapsed, many European countries stopped looking at NATO as a necessary tool. Accordingly, they refused to invest the necessary resources in security. The resurrection of Russia as a serious threat to Europe restores the need for NATO.
Secondly, this creates additional instruments of US pressure on Germany. Germany traditionally gravitates towards the continental game. In recent years, Berlin's drift towards China and Russia has become increasingly clear. The trade turnover between China and Germany has approached $250 billion a year. It is not surprising that in the conflict between the US and China over Huawei, Berlin took a tough stance that it does not intend to curtail cooperation with China in the field of telecommunications. The same applies to Russia. Putin is betting on the collapse of the European Union in order to return the concert of the great European powers, as was the case after the Napoleonic wars. Then the security architecture was formulated at the Congress of Vienna
In 1815, it determined the security architecture of Europe for almost a century. It is easier for Russia to negotiate with major powers, primarily Germany and France, in order to promote its interests in Europe than to suffer with the European Union, where small states have tools to protect their interests. Therefore, the Kremlin is shaking the EU.
In this situation, it is important for Washington to keep Germany in the Euro-Atlantic camp. And Putin's threats give Washington good arguments for putting pressure on the German elite. In fact, they strengthen the position of German supporters of the union between Germany and the United States.
Thirdly, Putin's threats to start a new redistribution of Europe actualize the issue of EU energy security. Limiting Russia's gas supplies to the EU amid the energy crisis, plus the threat of an invasion of Ukraine, gives Americans carte blanche to play a more active role in energy. It is no coincidence that against the backdrop of aggravated relations with Russia, the Biden administration began negotiations with Qatar regarding the supply of liquefied gas to Europe. Australia has already made proposals to start gas supplies to Europe. Finally, the US itself is interested in entering European market with its liquefied gas. Putin's aggressive policy in the European theater gives the US additional arguments in advancing its interests in Europe.
Conclusions:
As I wrote above, the US information war on Ukraine is reminiscent of the movie "Wag the Dog." The domestic political context of the United States requires Biden to demonstrate easy victories. The logic of the Biden administration's actions indicates that the White House is deliberately fomenting a new Caribbean crisis-2 in the information field. His “heroic” suppression is supposed to give Biden domestic political bonuses on the eve of the midterm elections to Congress on November 8, 2022.
At the same time, the Biden administration considers the interests of Ukraine as secondary, which can be neglected for the sake of the strategic goals of the United States.
The strategic goals of the United States on the world stage lie in the logic of countering China. In this geopolitical game, Russia is important to Washington. At least as a neutral observer. German Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schönbach, who was fired after revelations in India about relations with Russia, the need to respect Putin and the non-return of Crimea, told the truth. After all, many representatives of the European and American elites think in a similar way.
Therefore, Biden is ready to make a deal between the United States and Russia in the spirit of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Moreover, in 1972, Nixon and Mao Zedong were already doing a similar somersault in the US-China-USSR triangle. Now the balance of power within this triangle has changed, and Russia has found itself in the role of the Joker, which can swing both towards China and the United States. For Putin, respect is important, that is, recognition by the United States of Russia's status as an equal player on the world stage. It is important for the US to encircle China with a system of regional alliances, which will reduce Beijing's global ambitions. It is important for Beijing to prevent global isolation of China and ensure the stability of the economy and access to the world market. At the same time, it is critically important for China to return Taiwan in order to complete the collection of lands lost in the 19th and 20th centuries.
In this regard, although the loss of Ukraine is not critical for the United States, the Ukrainian crisis can trigger critical processes that will have global consequences for the entire global security architecture.
If the US-Russia deal fails, and Putin decides to launch a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, then Washington could very well benefit from such a scenario. After all, then the Americans, with the help of Ukraine, will do what Russia is doing today with regard to Ukraine with the help of ORDLO. That is, it exhausts resources in order to achieve the collapse of statehood through the weakening of the economy, which will form stronger positions in the region.
Ukraine cannot take away ORDLO, because Russia has huge resources to prevent the final victory of Ukraine by military means.
Likewise, Russia cannot take Ukraine without the consent of the US and its allies in Europe, because the West has far more resources than Russia to prevent its ultimate victory.
This is a very simple scheme, and all Putin's maneuvers are quite easy to read. Since they have already been mirrored in ORDLO.
Therefore, Ukraine needs to get rid of ORDLO in order to stop perceiving Putin's blackmail. Ukraine cannot return the occupied territories of Donbas through Minsk-2 without losing its subjectivity. The implementation of the provisions of Minsk-2 in the Constitution of Ukraine will establish Russia's control over the domestic and foreign policy of Ukraine. At a minimum, it will give Russia a blocking package. And Ukraine will be doomed to stagnate as the Bosnia and Herzegovina of Eastern Europe for many years, if not decades.
Therefore, it is necessary to support Zelensky in his intention not to implement Minsk-2. If Putin decides on a big war with Ukraine, then the West will be obliged to support Ukraine, since Putin's victory will destroy the entire security architecture in the region. The defeat of Ukraine will deal a powerful blow to the international positions of the United States, as it will become an argument for the vacillating countries that Washington is unable to fulfill its obligations and cannot protect its allies at critical moments. I'm not even talking about the fact that the destruction of Ukraine's sovereignty will be a catastrophic blow to the nuclear non-proliferation system. In addition, personally for Biden and the US Democrats, the collapse of Ukraine will be a powerful blow in the confrontation with the Republicans, which will certainly lead to the loss of control not only over both houses of Congress, but also in the presidential election.
All this should Ukraine say to Washington. We are not obliged to commit suicide of the Ukrainian state for the sake of Biden's tactical moves.
Alternative? Ukraine needs to get rid of Minsk-2. Ukraine must declare that it does not intend to resolve the ORDLO issue by military means. Further, to introduce into the Constitution a provision that ORDLO can be returned to Ukraine when the relevant international conditions mature. That is exactly what the FRG did with respect to the GDR. Why can't Ukraine do the same? Within the framework of this logic, Ukraine can resume full-fledged economic relations with the LPR and the DPR. In short, Ukraine should not be in a rush with ORDLO. Russia cannot force Ukraine to take back the occupied territory on its own terms. Russia may even annex the LPR and DPR, recognize them as an independent state, but for Ukraine, these scenarios sound better than the return of ORDLO on Russia's terms.
In addition, after Ukraine has already received a response from the United States and European countries several times that it is not going to be granted NATO member status in the near future, it is absolutely obvious that there is no sense for Kyiv to pedal this topic. If the US and Europe are not ready today to accept Ukraine into NATO, then there is no point for Ukraine to draconize Russia with this topic.
It is necessary to declare the neutral status of Ukraine for the next 20 years with the right to prolong. And to make all the great powers confirm this status and give guarantees for the security of Ukraine. For example, in such a format, as Belgium had from Great Britain before the First World War. If Russia refuses such a scheme, then Ukraine should simply accept the fact that it will always fight for its existence. How Israel has been fighting since 1948. We will have to radically strengthen our military-industrial complex, build a system of bilateral alliances, and so on. Russia simply will not leave other options.
In any case, Ukrainians must understand that we ourselves will make the final decision about our fate. If Ukraine is forced to implement Minsk-2 into the Constitution of Ukraine, then specific deputies will press buttons in the hall of the Verkhovna Rada. The office of the president and Zelensky himself will also not escape responsibility if they falter under the pressure of the West and Russia.
Today Ukraine faces a simple and at the same time very difficult choice - it can choose the fate of Czechoslovakia in 1938, Finland in 1945, Austria in 1955, South Korea in 1950 or Israel in 1948. Any choice will determine our fate for decades. It is today that the question is being decided whether Ukraine has become a mature nation or it is doomed to continue being a building material for empires.