Germany and France are Russia's natural geopolitical partners. Ukraine needs to shape its policy based on this postulate. However, we are able to receive significant situational assistance from the two most powerful EU countries.
Ukraine's fate is determined by its geopolitical position. It also determines our allies. In 1904, in the work of H. McKinder, a member of the Secret Council of the British King, "Geographical Axis of History", the basic principles of the doctrine of geopolitics were formulated, which are still valid today. According to this theory, the "countries of the sea" - England, the United States - are gaining control over the "land countries" located in Eurasia. They need Heartland ("core land"), which is located in what is now Russia, Iran, Central Asia. In 1944, the work of the American N. Spikeman was published, in which an innovation was introduced - it is not necessary to control the Heartland directly, it is enough to control the lands that frame it. Calling these lands Rimland, Spikeman derived the postulate that he who controls Rimland also controls Heartland. The war in Ukraine is the battle for Rimland.
The reasons for the struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union after World War II were not so much ideological as geopolitical ("We will fight the Soviet Union for our geopolitical interests, even if we are a socialist state," said Schlesinger Jr., an adviser to President Kennedy). The USSR supported its puppets in the western hemisphere - the patrimony of the United States (Cuba, Nicaragua, Chile). The United States, in turn, restrained the Soviet Union in Europe and beat the "undergrowth" (Rimland) of the USSR (Heartland) - the Middle East, military bases in Turkey, the Middle East, Afghanistan, Korea, Vietnam.
Modern Russia acts within the framework of the classical geopolitical confrontation. This was confirmed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the film "World Order" (2015). On the geopolitical map, Ukraine is part of the Rimland zone. In its territory there is a struggle between the "sea countries" and the "land countries" located in the Heartland, which do not want to be controlled by the "sea countries". The Atlanticists - the United States and Britain - are natural allies of independent Ukraine as part of Rimland.
Germany is not a natural ally of Ukraine. Germany is a country that has been politically essentially under mild Anglo-Saxon occupation since 1945, whose foreign policy has long been determined by the United States. This irritates German political elites. Historically, Germany's strategic goal was to create a single Eurasian formation to change the vector of world development in international affairs - the dominance of the "seas" of the United States and Britain in continental Europe. The German F. Ratzel, a continental geopolitician, an opponent of the Anglo-Saxons, wrote in the late nineteenth century about the need to conquer for the German nation "living space" (Lebensraum) in Eastern Europe. His theory demonstrated the German elite's concern about British policy on the continent. Hitler acted in the paradigm of the conquest of Lebensraum.
Now, with some German toughness against Putin's Russian attack on Ukraine, German strategic interests are in fact more in line with Russia's - to challenge the Anglo-Saxon world (hence the recent loyalty to Russia's gas projects in Germany and restraint on US liquefied gas initiatives). True, Putin is bloody and odious, but after his departure from power, much needs to change, according to German political and business elites. The revival of a great political economy in alliance with France and Russia (Europe from Brest, France, to Vladivostok) is Germany's strategic goal. And this is exactly what the United States and Great Britain do not want, as the odious G. Kissinger clearly pointed out in the work of "Diplomacy".
Therefore, the natural and strategic allies of Ukraine, the real guarantors of its independence are the United States, Britain and representatives of the British Commonwealth (Canada, Australia, New Zealand). Ukraine's allies, albeit not as influential as the Atlantic states, are Poland and Romania. Poland's position in the event of Ukraine's defeat will be precarious - Russia and Germany have repeatedly been allies, including in the partition of Poland. That is why Ukraine is important for Poland as an insulator against "unprotected contact" with Russia. Romania has its own ambitions - soft integration into Moldova. The main opponent here is Russia, which has seized part of the territory of Moldova (Transnistria) and exerts ideological influence on the people of Moldova, forming anti-European views. Ukraine's natural allies are also the Baltic states, which are potentially under the threat of aggressive policy by Russia.
The long-term interests of Germany and France are to form a strategic alliance with Russia (to give them "living space" in the East) to challenge the Anglo-Saxon world, which has been opposed to them since the Middle Ages and the Thirty Years' War. In the long run, Germany and France will not give up their strategic interests in Eastern Europe. Only such a movement, according to the French and German elites, will be able to overcome the "twilight of Europe", marked by O. Spengler in his epoch-making work of the same name. The ideology of the struggle for the "living space" of F. Ratzel is "sewn" in the minds of the European continental Franco-German elite.
At present, Germany and France cannot ignore Russia's bold violation of international law and numerous bloody war crimes. But they will not throw their heads into a whirlpool against Russia - because they are playing long and have Russia as a strategic partner. Therefore, they will continue to maneuver between the requirements of the present and long-term interests.
In March-May, Ukraine received only two arms shipments from Germany. Both contained only small devices - anti-tank mines, spare parts for machine guns, lighters and detonation cords, radios, hand grenades, explosive charges. Probably, there will be no fundamental changes in the issue of weapons, this should be taken as a fact.
It should be clearly understood what the real potential for cooperation with Germany and France is. Ukraine has received € 1.2 billion in EU macro-financial assistance (a 15-year loan at 0.125% per annum) - without the consent of Germany and France, this would not have been possible. Germany is providing financial assistance to Ukraine, in particular, on May 29, support for 1 billion euros was announced. What is important is in the form of a grant, ie on a non-repayable basis. Earlier, Germany allocated 160 million euros, France - 330 million euros. Of course, this is a drop in the ocean in terms of the need to rebuild the economy and infrastructure. Therefore, we should work on obtaining EU funds in general and from EU leaders in particular.
The potential for cooperation with France is in convoys for the export of Ukrainian grain by sea. France has the strongest navy in the European Union. France is interested in resuming food exports from Ukraine. Because it usually went to North Africa. In case of famine there, the flow of refugees flows primarily to France. Given the economic recovery after the war, the needs of Germany, the EU's largest exporter, should be used to relocate production abroad, with the establishment of complex industrial assembly plants in Ukraine.
Victory requires a correct interpretation of geopolitical doctrine, Ukraine's place in it, challenges and ways to overcome them. And a sober assessment - who is a natural partner of our country, and who can not be, but can be a situational partner. We should not despair over the slowdown in the supply of German weapons or the next talks between E. Macron and Vladimir Putin. We need to show realism and practicality - we need to receive political, financial, technical support from Germany and France to the extent that they can afford, based on their own strategic interests. And work on multiplying the volume of such support.