There is a wonderful Russian tradition - regicide and the overthrow of monarchs in March (Paul I, Alexander II, Nicholas II).
But judging by the intensity of events, Putin may not make it to March. His personal "March" can come at any moment.
But the removal of Putin from power is not an end in itself, but only a necessary stage on the path to the Time of Troubles.
***
"What is it, stupidity or treason?" - said the Duma liberal and leader of the Kadet party Pavel Milyukov in November 1916.
In 1916, Russian Duma liberals actively collected and pumped rumors about the attempts of the Russian government to make a separate peace with Germany.
They were already openly "rocking" the king, because they felt weak.
The Russian people, due to their mental “features”, could easily forgive the tsar for stupidity, and even betrayal.
But what he cannot forgive is weakness.
Russians respect only brute force. That is why they consider rudeness to be a virtue, and rudeness from the top political leadership of the country (president or foreign minister) they consider quite acceptable in international relations.
It was not Putin who instilled in the Russians a taste for rudeness, arrogance and disregard for the rule of law, it was the Russians who "created" Putin.
His image was designed "at the request" of the Russians themselves. They are alien to liberal values, freedom, including economic.
They needed a leader who would think for them. That is why many Russians answer journalists' questions that it seems like war is bad, but they know better there (in the Kremlin).
Hence the photo with a naked torso, on a bear, on a fishing trip, on a fighter jet, in a cap for a submariner, during judo training, with amphorae under water near the coast of the newly annexed Crimea.
The Russians were delighted with all this! A masculine male, unlike loose European politicians, and even more so women politicians, or Ukrainian political leaders in invariably crumpled jackets (until recently).
On February 24, 2022, the Russians once again admired their leader. Because brute force! They wanted to chhat on the UN Charter, on the rule of law and even on justice.
That's right, because we want it that way!
By the way, this is how the Russian inhabitants explained the need for Ukraine to surrender and not resist, that is, to submit to someone else's will, while denying the opportunity to have their own will.
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February 24, 2022 for Russia was like August 2, 1914 (the declaration of war on Germany), when people gathered on Palace Square and sang "God Save the Tsar!" and were in a state of extreme euphoria.
Because it was a show of strength.
But since then, neither "the" Russians nor "these" have seen the "real" tsar...
Nicholas II was ruined by weakness. Despite the fact that in historiography he is often referred to as "Bloody", he is remembered as the "Weak" king.
The fact is that excessive violence (in this case, the shooting of demonstrations in 1905) is a sign of an unformed personality, and in particular the immaturity of a man.
Nicholas II did not show himself in any way when it was required of him.
On June 9 (22), 1915, Russian troops left Lvov. Nicholas II wrote in his diary: " ... Then he returned to the tent where the ministers and ambassadors were gathered. After ¼ hours (!!!) the huge Izmail descended smoothly and majestically and anchored in the middle of the river. ... Played tennis and rode on the ponds. ... In the evening we sat with Grigory. I studied after tea. The day was beautiful " .
Even the renunciation of power by Nicholas II is a very eloquent gesture, showing all the gentleness of the ruler. He abdicated the throne, voluntarily going under house arrest, and then to the place of his death.
But the liberals did not hold on to power either. Their weakness also killed them.
Because the liberals were a thin layer of Europeanized Russians, brought up by French teachers, who gained experience on the basis of German state administration, and enjoyed the benefits of English science and technology.
They still operated under the old system. They were still not clear to the people, and even more so, the victory at the front did not happen.
Therefore, the red idea "came" to the people - simple and understandable to an uneducated Russian peasant.
***
In the animal world, strength is the most important quality. Because the life and well-being of the pack itself and all its individual members depend on the leadership qualities of the leader of the pack.
The same applies to barbarian societies, which Russian certainly is.
On May 9, 2022, everyone expected some kind of Armageddon from Putin - “Get up a huge country! ..”, general mobilization, transferring the economy to war footing, censorship, war to the bitter end ...
But no, nothing like that!
The Russians were knocked out of Izyum - Putin opens the Ferris wheel.
The Nordic Streams were blown up - Putin's reaction only on the 3rd day.
The Crimean bridge was blown up - a weak reaction only on the 2nd day.
Lost Kherson - silence!
Attack of the Senate Palace (by the way, the presidential residence) - so what!
Attacked Moscow and Rublyovka - "Putin does not plan to make an appeal after the UAV attack," his press secretary Peskov immediately butts in.
They shelled Shebekino - again Peskov: "The shelling of the city of Shebekino in the Belgorod region cannot have an impact on the course of the military operation."
The man (Putin) has been in politics one way or another for almost 35 years. Doesn't he understand how a leader should react to such situations?
Still, they say that it proceeds purely from the interests of maintaining personal power.
If the leader proceeds from the interests of maintaining personal power, after any of these situations, he should become furious. Showy or real - it doesn't matter!
He must tear, throw and carve sparks.
Hitler would have thrown a uniform tantrum! Well, or if Putin is compared with Stalin (although this is ridiculous), the people responsible for such mistakes should have started to “disappear”. But no, nothing like that. Not even any resignations. And a public reaction, except for the mumbling on duty about the intrigues of the West.
Tired? They say age affects. There is such a version… But look at Joseph Biden! The uncle crashes every now and then, does not recognize relatives, talks to invisible people, and at the same time moves the world agenda. And it moves very effectively. And he is already 80 years old!
Well Putin mockingly wished him health. So Biden will definitely survive Putin.
***
And now look how “beautifully” Peskov wins back! Watch your hands and mustache!
Peskov either immediately "cuts off" - Putin does not plan to make an appeal, or makes a delay for a couple of days.
That is, it either removes Putin from a possible comment in hot pursuit, or gives 2-3 days for the information vacuum to fill by itself - rumors, gossip, analytics, rumors ...
So that in 2–3 days no one would be interested in an official comment in the first person.
In a normal situation, the press secretary of the head of state is needed for press releases, organization of reporting press conferences and their moderation.
And Peskov is the most important element of Putin's encapsulation.
If the presidential apparatus, completely controlled by the FSB, is called upon to form the density of the agenda of the head of state so that there is no time for stupid things (for example, to look for some kind of alternative information), then Peskov regulates the microphone, that is, access to the media.
In the event of a crisis, a subjective politician would call “Peskov” to himself and twist his mustache so that in half an hour there would be press, speech abstracts and media coverage.
And then on the contrary - the press secretary wags the president!
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And for the reconstruction of 1917 - the strongest social and psychological shock, in addition to the lost war and economic failure, one more necessary element is needed. Weak king!
Ideally - a fool, a traitor and a weakling! Three in one.
But how to make a weak ruler out of a powerful ruler?
Easily! It is only necessary to slightly bring Putin's behavior into dissonance with the established image.
Hold the comment a little, make it less emotional, refuse to comment somewhere, go to an entertainment event during the tragedy.
But doesn't Putin understand that he is cheated?
In fact, Putin's power is a simulation created by the FSB specifically for one person in order to ensure the precise execution of the tasks set and to exclude any unpredictability.
Putin's coming to power, or rather his bringing to power, did not imply his subjectivity from the very beginning.
Someone may object, they say, yes, at first Putin was brought to power by the FSB, but then he fledged and took power into his own hands.
Can you please tell me when this moment came? What did he mark?
Putin is an automaton, a mechanically driven puppet that performs actions according to a given program.
For the FSB, Putin is the perfect candidate for all their assignments.
He does not use the Internet and mobile phone, and does not even try to get alternative information. And why, because Putin is convinced that the most correct information is contained in the famous "daddies".
Putin is a prisoner of the golden cage. But he is also her guardian.
***
Milyukov, in his famous speech, will say: "We have lost faith that this government can lead us to victory ...".
He is echoed 100 years later by Girkin-Strelkov.
Naturally, they will look for the guilty, and they will find it! And point the finger!
To Putin...
Putin, like the letter “Z”, are symbols on which both previous successes and today's defeats are anchored.
It seems that Prigozhin’s sledgehammer, as a kind of symbol of “justice” (criminal, but supposedly right in terms of notions), will fall on the head of the main culprit of the military catastrophe…
And that Putin does not understand that he is going to be slaughtered?
It seems that Putin has already understood everything. He is in the deepest depression, and it is already visible. On the face displaced into the subconscious fear.
But no one will ask him. The ideologists of the Russian revolution are not stopped by either thousands of victims in Ukraine, or hundreds of thousands of victims in the Russian Army, and even more so, they will not be stopped by some kind of cheerful grandfather eccentric with the letter "m".
Moreover, absolute power is at stake in the new totalitarian Russia...
Authors:
Vladimir Shevchenko , political scientist, Doctor of Philosophy
Andrey Savarts , analyst, lawyer, author of the telegram channel " Special Opinion "