To put it simple, the scheme is something like this.
Russia is a hierarchically arranged state, with very weak horizontal ties in the absence of a subjective civil society. That is, a society capable of acting according to its own will, not necessarily coinciding with the course of power.
Ukraine is completely different. A lot of worthy people explained our specifics, I will not waste time. The main difference is that our society is a self-organizing and self-mobilizing force that can be relied upon in difficult times. Not all, but a significant part of it.
When the escalation began, not all of Russia collapsed on Ukraine. But only a small part of the resources of its hierarchically arranged organism. For Russia, this war is non-national, non-domestic. It affects the bulk of people only through television. It does not mobilize social ties, does not mobilize (at least not yet) society. Besides, it is wrong.
In Ukraine, the opposite is true. This is a domestic, national liberation war for a just cause. For survival. It cannot be said that all of us have mobilized to repel the enemy. Part fled, part is passive.
But if you make up a semblance of a formula, then about 1/20 of Russia takes part in the war against about 1/7 of Ukraine. That is, if it is very conditional, then the forces are approximately comparable. Only they are of a different nature.
A structure is fighting against the Russian hierarchy, where there are a lot of network-centric self-organizing elements.
It should be noted that the best Russian units are also organized according to the network-centric principle.
The fundamental difference between the network is that decisions are made at the level of small groups, powers are delegated, resources are autonomous, much depends on the initiative. But the bulk of the Russian army is a wooden Soviet hierarchy.
Our society, government, and army are permeated with network structures. State structures operate with much larger resources, but society is much more mobile. Where power slows down, citizens organize themselves and, like ants or bees, fight for their country. This creates a big element of chaos and waste of resources. But at critical moments it works like an ideal immunity.
While maintaining the manageability of the country, the Kremlin will not be able to crush such a defense of Ukraine with the current scale of the resources involved.
Russia failed to suppress us with one touch. The forces are roughly balanced. Further developments will be determined by such factors.
The resources of the Ukrainian state are depleted. The resources of the active part of Ukrainian society, already involved in defense, are depleted. We will be able to resist if we improve the coordination of available resources and carry out additional mobilization (conditionally - up to 2-3/7). We will also become increasingly dependent on foreign aid.
Russia, with the current scale of the resources involved, will not be able to defeat us. The only way out is to carry out mobilization, to stop playing "special operation" and "limited contingent". The question is how much of its potential resources the Russian hierarchy will be able to mobilize and bring down on us.
If we slow down, the West will slow down, and the Kremlin will be able to mobilize - we are finished, Russia will crush us with masses.
If there are problems with mobilization in Russia (we are trying very hard to have them), and we become more dynamic in order to better project force, and receive the necessary assistance in time, then we will expel the occupiers at least to the borders as of 23.02. And we will begin to methodically finish them off.
I urge you to look at the Donbas and soberly assess the situation. The Russians have been storming our line of defense with superior forces for 50 days. They killed thousands of people, but the task has not yet been solved. But after all, they have the same line of defense on their side, which our troops will have to storm. Thinking in advance is not worth it. The situation will show.
If neither we nor Russia can ensure an advantage due to quantity or quality, the war will drag on to mutual exhaustion. There are supporters of such a scenario in the world. But this is definitely not Ukraine. Because the war is on our land. Our people are dying, our cities are in ruins, our children are injured and time is wasted.
Hence the applied conclusions.
1. No squabbling inside. Bruising is the enemy of coordination. I deliberately do not delete comments under my posts so that everyone can see the “unity” blooming there. And I can perfectly see which botnets are attacking (at least you could remove the thematic frames, you’re completely lazy). In vain.
2. We are rebuilding on a military footing. This does not mean that everyone should immediately join the army. This means understanding how you will survive, with the expectation that part of your personal resources (time, comfort, money) be reserved for defense / life in a war. It won't work out. Everyone will have costs. Remember how our grandmothers knew how to plan resources, what margin of safety they knew how to create.
3. We do not exhaust ourselves unnecessarily. We find time and activities for rest / switching. Otherwise, we will inevitably start to get sick. And you can't get sick. We don't bully those around us. You may not know why this unpleasant Russian / Ukrainian-speaking aunt is grumbling. She could have buried someone yesterday. Or why this thug is in the rear. He could survive in hell yesterday and is now on the edge of what he saw. If the situation does not require a reaction, then do not interfere. After the victory, tell everyone how they are wrong and how they live wrong.
We've had good news for a couple of days. We will have bad news. We have losses. But you can see for yourself - Russia has not yet moved to an all-out attack. She has been concentrating forces for two weeks now and is forced to revise her plan, lowering the bar. We are forcing her to do this. Let's focus on this.