Russia's war against Ukraine, without exaggeration, divided the world order into "before" and "after". And it's not just about the inhuman and cynical actions of the Russian leadership, on the one hand, and the complete impotence of the collective West, on the other. We are talking about the complete collapse of the established system of peaceful coexistence of nations, when all international treaties and security guarantees are not worth the paper on which they are written, but in fact only the right of the strong acts.
Someone can say that there have already been such precedents (Iraq, Afghanistan), but at least under them the collective West at least tried to hide behind fig leaves of plausibility. The Russian invasion, on the other hand, is argued by such a monstrous lie and accompanied by frankly misanthropic messages from the Russian elites - it causes nothing more than a quiet shock from what is heard. At the same time, the collective West, understanding all the madness of the arguments put forward by Russia, continues to try to find some points of contact with the monkey, brutally breaking the well-fed and quiet little world in the West for so long and carefully built. For some reason, it seems to them that having "heard" the aggressor's concerns, pushing Ukraine into concessions and foolishly shying away from possible participation in the conflict, they will keep everything as it was. I think that such Western elites have no right to a political future, and in the era of globalization, the Ukrainian media are simply obliged to take care of this.
The current disposition of global actors is as follows:
- Russia. On the one hand, it understands that it is losing the war, but it has a powerful enough resource to continue bombing the civilian population and destroying Ukrainian infrastructure for quite a long time. They understand that Ukraine will not quickly deploy air defense systems - even if someone sells such a system to us (and so far there are not so many who want it), fuss about aircraft for Ukraine from the West is frankly shameful. Hence the rhetoric of the official Kremlin, gradually reducing public demands on the Ukrainian authorities. However, it is not worth counting on the fact that Russia will eventually remove them altogether. The official Kremlin needs at least some facade fig leaves to cover up all the military disgrace they are experiencing. They also understand that sanctions are still a ticket for at least years, if not decades, into a life according to Juche principles. Therefore, they need some way out of their situation in order to crawl out of Ukraine, telling the zombified population about great victories, but at the same time - which will allow the current elites to remain in power, for which a clear defeat will mean the end of everything.
2. Ukraine. Here the situation is a little simpler and more complicated at the same time. It is easier on the part that the grief, tears and blood of innocent people absolutely exclude any falsehood or lies on the part of the Ukrainian elites. For this, such elites will simply be demolished, and most likely they will simply be shot according to the laws of wartime without trial or investigation. Therefore, speaking the truth, often unpleasant, but objective - the elites do not keep the population in a warm bath - but offer to go through this terrible period in our history together. This contrasts sharply with the relations between the elites and the people in Russia. It is more difficult on the part that it will actually take thousands of civilian and military lives to end the Russian aggression militarily - and this is well understood by the country's leadership. I think they also understand that they will not return ORDLO and Crimea by military means within the framework of today's hostilities - firstly, we are unlikely to have enough forces for this, and secondly, for a large percentage of the population of these territories - Ukrainian army will be perceived as an occupier, despite the absolutely legal right of Ukraine to return these territories under its own control. And this is a very bitter truth. To those who say that it is necessary to go to the end and restore territorial integrity - I would like to ask a question - but did they consider the resources that we have to go to the end? Do we have enough? Even if we imagine the fantastic – and we have come to the end – we get as voters a population zombified by Russian propaganda, who will elect Kivas and others like them to the Ukrainian parliament, shouting about the next oppression of Russian-speakers, fascists, drug addicts and other heresy like that. If we leave the situation with ORDLO and Crimea as it is, do we understand that at the same time Russia can attack us again. Of course, we understand, but during this time we have a chance to fundamentally rebuild our economy, strengthen the army, realizing that we coexist with a neighbor who, without any illusions, wants our destruction. At the same time, Ukrainian society, which pays a bloody price for the conflict, will not forgive the Ukrainian elites for any territorial concessions to the Kremlin. At the same time, we already understand that no one in NATO or the EU is waiting for us with open arms, even though we are now demonstrating the values that the EU is only declaring.
3. West. It is obvious that the collective West wants all this to end soon and they are ready to pay for it. But only money. Unfortunately, had they paid for it earlier, we might not have had so many deaths of innocent people and catastrophic destruction of our cities. The actions of the West tell us that our security guarantees are just paper with meaningless words written on it; declared humanism and universal human values - only until the moment when we need to defend them; military assistance - only so as not to anger the crazy aggressor in any case. The lessons of the Second World War, as it turned out, are completely forgotten; Western elites are cowardly and think in momentary benefits. We will have to accept this fact and make them pay the same as Russia will pay for the destruction of our country. Because the collective West is also responsible for all the horror that is now happening in Ukraine. You don't have to deal with the legal casuistry of the Budapest Memorandum to understand that its essence was that we gave up the nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees. When a guarantor country attacks our country, and other guarantor countries show deep concern, they spit on security guarantees just as much as Russia does. So, they are also responsible for what is happening. So, let them pay. In any case, the task of our media is to clearly convey to Western society that their cowardly leaders allow a child to die of dehydration in the 21st century, simply because they do not have the courage to simply keep the promise made by their country.
What is the possible way out of such a tangle of contradictions? A possible subtotal would be the following:
Ukraine declares neutral status
Russia withdraws its troops
Ukraine does not recognize either ORDLO or Crimea, but declares that their return will be exclusively diplomatic.
For Russia, this is an occasion to declare inside the country about grandiose victories, about demilitarization (they say we destroyed the military infrastructure), about the fact that we showed great power, the “special operation” achieved its results and all this other rubbish that they push to their rapidly impoverished, but enthusiastic electorate.
For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to get a breather, save lives and switch the country to a military footing, but having a completely different resource behind it - and the declared Marshall Plan and reparations at the expense of arrested Russian assets. At the same time, it is important to show the Western society the whole essence of their rotten elite and to say their weighty word at the next elections.
And the West will pay and pay dearly for all the horror it allowed in Europe in the 21st century because of its own cowardice, the attempts of the elites to appease the crazy bloodthirsty monster, the complete lack of historical memory and the betrayal of their own values.
The whole world must understand that the war between Russia and Ukraine raises fundamental questions of the world order: what leverage should the world community have to avoid such tragedies in the future? Or will there be only the right of the strong? If so, then the desire of countries to obtain their own nuclear weapons will be quite understandable and justified. At the same time, the risk of an accidental nuclear conflict increases to an alarming level. I hope that the renewed world elites will find the courage to find a solution that will allow, without exaggeration, all of humanity to look at least into tomorrow.