February 19 is the optimal date for Russia to launch a military invasion of Ukraine.
This conclusion was made by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (Washington).
Analysts note the coincidence of a number of factors. The first of them: on this day, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will be outside Ukraine - at a security conference in Munich. This increases the ability of the Russian special services to successfully attempt a "coup" in Kyiv. In addition, the president will not be able to effectively coordinate efforts to resist aggression. Russia will be able to cut off air traffic in Ukraine, which will make it difficult for Zelensky to return to the capital.
On February 19, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko will follow the "nuclear exercises". What creates the maximum deterrent effect for Russia in the context of the West's reaction to aggression in Ukraine. In addition, being in the situational center will allow you to monitor the course of hostilities against Ukraine.
Analysts also note the recent strong escalation of hostilities by Russian forces in the Donbas under the false pretext of an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which may allow the Russian authorities to "intervene" and use arguments about protecting Russian-speaking people and citizens of the Russian Federation.
ISW says it has revised its previous projections of how the conflict will unfold to a very likely and larger one than analysts previously thought.
It became known that the occupiers recorded a video announcing the evacuation from Donbas a few days before the evacuation: proof has appeared.