The latest events in Kazakhstan have definitively testified that they follow the Kremlin's script. Moscow has long been looking for an excuse to ignite another bloody conflict in order to divert attention from the aggression on Ukrainian territory. At first, it did not work in Montenegro, then in Kosovo, it seems, it began to work out in Bosnia, but the United States and Europe actively intervened here. And now, it seems, Russia managed to set fire to the situation in Kazakhstan.
You must understand that only a well-organized party organization with cells can organize protests all over the country overnight, which was not the case in Kazakhstan. Or an intelligence structure that has deeply and long ago penetrated the social and state organism of a foreign country. When the time came to destabilize it, they activated all their underground structures and residencies created over the years. That is, the factor of popular indignation remains objective, but in this case it cannot be decisive.
The introduction of CSTO troops could lead to a civil war in Kazakhstan, and this is a good development of events for Moscow. In the bloody conflict, the Russian Federation will present itself to the international community as a peacemaker. With its troops in Astana, Moscow will put a completely pro-Russian political elite at the helm of power in the country, and the international community will have no time for a sluggish conflict in Donbas or the Russian occupation of Crimea. Kazakhstani events could kill the spectrum of international attention in Ukraine for many years. At the same time, Moscow is going to receive big political dividends, and according to the "Ukrainian scenario" it is possible that it may also grab a part of Kazakhstani territories in the east of the country, and ignite a long-lasting armed conflict in the north - here is the Kazakhstani Crimea and Donbas.
The style of the Russian special services immediately manifested itself when the phones of some of the organizers of the riots, allegedly with Ukrainian phone numbers, appeared in the public domain. The supplies of Kazakh coal to Ukraine have already stopped, and this energy carrier is just very much needed now by our state.
Also, do not be misled by the demands to remove Nursultan Nazarbayev from the political arena. It was he who managed to skillfully maneuver between Russia, China and the United States, using the policy of separate alliances with Beijing and Washington, so as not to finally fall under the Kremlin's cap.
Moscow has also not forgotten how in March 2014 Nazarbayev openly defended Ukraine against a Russian attack. If you remember, Alexander Lukashenko then criticized Viktor Yanukovych for indecision, and not Russia for aggression. But Nursultan Nazarbayev spoke about the flawed and inhumanity of Moscow's policy towards Kyiv. Then Vladimir Putin said at a press conference that he was surprised by such large borders of Kazakhstan and that he did not remember historical existence of such a state on such a huge scale. In the east of Kazakhstan, Russian speakers immediately began to demand independence. And then Nursultan Nazarbayev was forced to back down, and as a result, everything quietly calmed down. But Moscow never forgives acts of disobedience.
So what are the scenarios for Kazakhstan? Unfortunately, bad or very bad. If a civil war breaks out there, it cannot be ruled out that the Russian special services will begin to actively work with Ukrainian radicals. For example, so that they send help to the demonstrators in the form of volunteers with experience in fighting. In this way, the Kremlin will be able to discredit Ukraine and try to label the events inspired by Russian intelligence as a color revolution of the West with Ukrainian roots.
In this situation, Ukraine needs to act very carefully and prudently. Moscow has prepared a lot of provocations related to the Ukrainian theme, which cannot be described in one piece. They will definitely be there, so you need to respond promptly and competently to them. We must be in constant contact with our allies and inform the international community in advance about possible intrigues by Moscow. And then it will be possible to avoid the unfavorable development of events.